Instead of evaluating what will work, and what won’t work, and trying to make the best possible decision based on your estimated guess of an outcome, remember that we can’t control the outcomes.
(If we could, then planning, marketing, and making would be far more boring and predictable.)
Instead, I like to ask: what will teach me more?
If I niche down, and try a super small sample, will I quickly learn about this group and be able to pivot faster?
If I launch a pilot, will I get enough information to make the next test?
I like to launch sooner because it teaches me more.
Waiting doesn’t give me more information. Mostly, it gives me more worry.
So as you’re evaluating your decision-making process, consider not just the desired outcome, but what position it puts you in for taking the next step, the one after this one. Often, decisions and moves are as much as about collecting data and learning from the results as they are about “getting it right.”